Changelog entry
Prediction markets (P2.3C)
2026-03-27
- Nations can now create **Prediction Markets** with a question, condition (price threshold, alliance member count, or nation era), and a target tick at which the condition is evaluated.
- Creating a prediction requires a listing fee of 5,000 cash (cash sink).
- Any nation can bet YES or NO on a prediction via `POST /api/predictions/[id]/bets`; cash is deducted immediately.
- At the target tick the condition is evaluated deterministically against the live world state; winners split the pool proportionally minus a 5% house fee. VOID outcomes (e.g., non-existent target) refund all bets.
- API: `POST /api/predictions` (create), `GET /api/predictions` (list), `GET /api/predictions/[id]/bets` (view bets).